On several occasions, BMW has warned us that the manual gearbox is living on borrowed time. The demise of the stick shift is inevitable, primarily because of the low take rate. In 2023, only 20% of the M3s and M4s sold in the United States had the 6MT. The harsh reality is there aren’t enough enthusiasts out there buying cars with three pedals. But there are other reasons why rowing your own gears is gradually becoming a lost art.
As safety and driver assistance systems evolve, these work best with vehicles equipped with an automatic transmission. In addition, the proliferation of hybrids and purely electric vehicles is also putting a nail in the manual gearbox’s coffin. These factors have created a perfect storm. That’s why a BMW with a 6MT will become a thing of the past sooner than you might think.
Today, we’re using our proverbial crystal ball to figure out which car will be the last with a clutch pedal. In early June, BMW introduced the next-generation 1 Series as an automatic-only affair. As we reported at the beginning of the year, the previous F70 model still had a manual on the cheapest versions sold in Europe.
The 2 Series Gran Coupe still has three pedals in its lesser configurations offered in select markets. However, the F44 is weeks/months away from retirement. The F74 arrives this fall and we’re certain it’ll be sold only with a seven-speed, dual-clutch auto. A long-wheelbase F78 variant of the compact sedan for China is guaranteed to have just two pedals as well.
The Manual BMW M2 Could Be Dying
You’ll be able to buy an M2 with a manual for a while but there are signs the G87 will do away with the third pedal in the coming years. We’ve been reporting on an xDrive variant for a while, and how its potential launch in 2026 could spell the end of the rear-wheel-drive configuration. If that happens, the RWD’s demise will also mean the manual’s retirement.
That said, we’re not excluding a potential return of the manual for a high-priced, low-volume M2 before the current generation runs its course. Who knows, that might be the final BMW with the do-it-yourself transmission. The G87 still has many years ahead as we’re hearing production won’t end until the second half of 2029. An even longer life cycle is a possibility because there’s likely no time for a new generation.
With the EU banning sales of new cars with combustion engines in 2035, odds are there won’t be a next-gen M2. Technically, the ban will be on cars with harmful emissions as ICE vehicles running on carbon-neutral fuels will be allowed. It remains to be seen whether the production of synthetic fuels will be ramped up to support such a massive influx of cars produced every year.
Will The Next-Gen BMW M3 (G84) Still Have Three Pedals?
Stepping up to the M3, the G80 is reportedly going out of production in early 2027. However, we’ve heard through the grapevine BMW will do another generation with a gasoline engine. Internally codenamed “G84,” the next-gen car is scheduled to come out in early 2028. It’s unclear whether the manual will survive. If it does, logic tells us it’ll outlive the three-pedal M2, effectively making it the final model with the “old-school” gearbox.
Our sources close to BMW have told us that a new 4 Series is not planned, so don’t get your hopes up for another M4. As a refresher, the current generation offers a manual only in the M4 G82 Coupe. The G83 Convertible is sold exclusively as a Competition xDrive model. The same goes for the more practical M3 G81 Touring.
The Z4 has been offering a manual ever since the G29 debuted in 2018. Up until earlier this year, you could only buy the roadster with three pedals by opting for the sDrive20i sold outside of the United States. The globally available Z4 M40i now offers the 6MT setup as well. But the question is – for how long? It’s been widely reported that BMW will discontinue the open-top sports cars in early 2026. There are no plans for a direct replacement.
The BMW Manual Still Has A Few Good Years Left
In October 2022, BMW M CEO Frank van Meel promised to keep the manual transmission alive until 2030. However, there was an asterisk attached to his statement because it depends on customer demand. The M division has also pledged to keep the inline-six and V8 engines in the lineup until the end of the decade. That means you have about five years left before hybrids and EVs take over.
We’ve only covered regular production models but who’s to say BMW won’t do another special project like the 3.0 CSL? With the clock ticking, an ultra-exclusive, high-priced manual M car would be an instant collector’s item. If the company had no problems selling the M4 CSL-based 3.0 CSL for a rumored €750,000, it’s confident it can charge an obscene amount of money for a final M with a stick.
It doesn’t even have to be a coachbuilt car like the 3.0 CSL. An M2 CSL as the manual gearbox’s epilogue would be a commercial hit. It would make sense for BMW to mark the retirement of the 6MT with a ludicrously expensive special-edition car. We’ve already seen a limited-run M3 MT Final Edition in Japan where the sports sedan has gone auto-only.
The writing is on the wall. Earlier this year, Frank van Meel said you’d better act fast if you want a three-pedal M car: “There are fun products, but let’s be honest, the volumes are getting smaller and smaller. And so, it doesn’t make sense to develop them anymore. If you want a manual M, you have to buy it now.”
Where Is The Manual M240i, BMW?
Although BMW has played its part to save the manuals better than rivals Mercedes and Audi, one model is missing from the lineup. Yes, the M240i with a clutch pedal. Is it too late to throw a stick shift in the 2 Series Coupe? Maybe not considering the G42 is supposedly staying in production until mid-2029.
However, we don’t know whether this cheaper M2 alternative is happening. The bean counters from Munich might’ve said no already. It wouldn’t take a lot of effort to make it happen now that BMW sells the Z4 M40i with a manual. After all, the B58+6MT combo is not exactly a novelty.
When all is said and done, time is running out for manual cars from Bavaria. If you want one, you probably have only a few years to take the plunge.
First published by https://bit.ly/3sM6JoH
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